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class="shang_ban">欧美老外毛片m.56.com房地产从未绑架中国金融体?“地价上涨推动房价上涨”是骗局</p> <p class="bai_xing">作者: 时间:2017/8/11 7:57:00 来源?/p> <p class="zai_yao">摘要:原标题:钟伟:房地产从未绑架中国金融体系,“地价上涨推动房价上涨”是谎言???4日,中共中央政治局召开会议分析研究当前经济形势,并部署下半年经济工作。会议强调,继续坚持?......</p> <div id="pic_url"> </div> <div id="fe5zut489" class="bodycontens"> <p>原标题:钟伟:房地产从未绑架中国金融体系?ldquo;地价上涨推动房价上涨”是谎言</p><p>??/p><p>7?4日,中共中央政治局召开会议分析研究当前经济形势,并部署下半年经济工作。会议强调,继续坚持稳中求进的工作总基调,把握好稳和进的关系,关键是稳;坚持以供给侧结构性改革为主线,把降低国企杠杆率作为重中之重,?ldquo;僵尸企业”作为国企改革的切入口;严?ldquo;灰犀?rdquo;,防范、化解金融风险?/p><p>这不是高层第一次提出要防范“灰犀?rdquo;风险?ldquo;灰犀?rdquo;是指发生概率高、影响大的潜在危机,相对?ldquo;黑天?rdquo;事件的难以预见性,“灰犀?rdquo;并不随机突发,而是在一系列警示信号和迹象后出现?/p><p>中国房地产市场是否需要防?ldquo;灰犀?rdquo;风险?房地产市场是否已出现整体泡沫?其是否已构成中国金融体系的系统性风险?地价上涨是否已成为房价持续上涨的背后原因?各路专家学者对此见仁见智,已有专家提出“中国房地产泡沫毋庸置?rdquo;的观点。对此,中国金融四十人论坛(CF40)成员、北京师范大学金融研究中心主任钟伟提出不同意见:中国房地产市场尚未出现整体泡沫,房地产行业也并未将中国金融体系置于巨大系统性风险的压力之下,至?ldquo;地价上涨推动房价上涨”的说法,更是赤裸裸的谎言?/p><p>下文根据CF40秘书处对钟伟的访谈整理而成?/p><p>中国房地产市场尚未出现整体泡?/p><p>我们可以采用三个较为简单的度量指标来判断中国房地产市场是否存在泡沫?/p><p>第一个度量指标,是商品房市值与国内生产总值GDP的比值。目前房地产市场中的一个流行观点称,我国商品房市值与GDP的比值已经达?11%,而国际市场中这一比值的平均水平?20%?50%,过高的比值表明中国的房地产市场泡沫问题异常严重。但是,观察中国房地产历年销售额与中国居民总体储蓄额的数据变化可知,这种观点并不正确。因为中国商品房销售金额超过两万亿这一事件发生?006年,这意味着我国房地产销售金额过高是近十年间才出现的现象,而近十年间我国的按揭贷款额与公积金贷款余额的总量不过二十万亿左右,不可能对应超过两百万亿的商品房市值?/p><p>第二个度量指标,是房地产在中国居民家庭财产配置中所占比例。根据万得数据,截至2016年底,中国居民的可投资金融资产为100万亿。而国家统计局的入户调查结果显示,房地产在中国居民家庭财产配置中所占比例超?0%,即便余下的40%均为可投资金融资产,也不可能达到100万亿规模。由中国居民可投资金融资产的数据反推可知,目前中国居民的住宅市值大约为150万亿,所以,如果不考虑如商业酒店等非住宅地产,中国商品房市值与GDP的比值大约为200%,无论如何不会达?11%的水平?/p><p>第三个度量指标,是金融机构及住房公积金机构所发放贷款额与抵押物价值的比值,这一比值指示着房地产金融市场所蕴含的风险。截?016年底,我国商业银行个人住房贷款余额与公积金住房贷款余额的总量大约?0万亿,所对应的抵押物价值接?00万亿。二者结合来看,我国并不存在房地产泡沫问题?/p><p>我认为,我国商品房市值与GDP的比值刚刚超?00%,与国际平均水平相持平,且抵押物价值大约为未偿还公积金与商业贷款余额的总量的五倍,所以中国房地产市场尚未出现整体泡沫。但结构性泡沫的出现是有可能的,其中,西北地区城市和其他地区四线城市的房地产泡沫较相对而言最为严重?/p><p>市场发展步入中后?房价普涨格局已经结束</p><p>想要判断目前的中国房地产市场究竟处于发展周期中的哪一阶段,我们要综合考量城市化率、人口总量和人口结构、新增住宅需求中首次置业与改善型置业的比例等多项基础数据?/p><p>基于对以上基础数据的不同理解,我对中国房地产市场的发展阶段有着与其他同行不完全一致的解读。我认为,中国的房地产市场正处于发展周期中的中后期阶段。在今后的三四年时间中,中国房地产市场仍将取得一定增长,但将达到历史顶部?/p> 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